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Set your alarms – the 2026 FIFA World Cup begins at 5am on Friday when co-host Mexico takes on South Africa in Mexico City.
Mexico is co-hosting alongside Canada and the United States for the first of FIFA’s 48-team expanded tournament – the concept of which was largely driven by FIFA president Gianni Infantino.
Love it or hate it, 48 teams across 12 groups will contest the trophy, with the top two from each group – and the eight best third-place finishers – to advance to the round of 32.
That’s a lot of teams and a lot of players, so here’s the first of a two-part group-by-group guide to the World Cup.
Group A
The favourite: Mexico
What we think: The Mexicans will be difficult to beat at home and therefore are strong favourites to top this group, with veteran striker Raul Jimenez playing some of the best football of his career. Mexico have been quarter-finalists in their two previous occasions as World Cup hosts and are a chance to do it again – keep an eye on 17-year-old midfielder Gilberto Mora, the rising star of El Tri. And if you feel a sense of deja vu when you tune into the opening game, you’re not wrong; Mexico faced South Africa in the first match of the 2010 World Cup, too, but it’s hard to see much upside for Bafana Bafana here.
South Korea will probably mount the strongest challenge to Mexico for top spot in what will almost certainly be Son Heung-min’s last World Cup. As for Czechia, this is their first World Cup since 2006, and just the second since the breakup of Czechoslovakia - but with only a handful of squad members based outside the country, their pathway to the knockout phase will be through finishing third, if that’s enough to carry them there.
Group B
The favourite: Switzerland
What we think: The Swiss should have this group locked up comfortably with a familiar and disciplined team – many of whom were there for their narrow quarter-final loss to England at Euro 2024. As Socceroos fans saw in the friendly in San Diego, they’re also pretty slick on the ball, and Granit Xhaka can create magic if he’s given time and space.
That means it’s really a battle to be the best of the rest, and there’s a clear pecking order. Co-hosts Canada have an obvious advantage in playing on home soil, and in captain Alphonso Davies, probably the best footballer they’ve had. Bosnia and Herzegovina are surely still riding the high of beating Italy on penalties to qualify for the World Cup. And Qatar, the two-time Asian champions? After an embarrassing display as hosts (and debutants) four years ago, their lead-in form has been horrendous; they were held to a 0-0 draw by El Salvador and then lost 1-0 to Ireland. They won’t be here for a long time, and it probably won’t be a good time either.
Group C
The favourite: Brazil
What we think: Carlo Ancelotti’s team are hunting Brazil’s sixth World Cup title and are definite favourites to top Group C - but how far they go remains to be seen. There are injury concerns lingering around Neymar, who remains in doubt, and their performances in qualification were dicey. Being Brazil, though, they have no shortage of talent: Vinicius Junior is one of the world’s best forwards, and from their time together at Real Madrid, Ancelotti (one of the world’s best coaches, of course) should know how to get the best out of him.
Morocco is a nation on the march in football, finishing fourth at the last World Cup; they’re co-hosting the next one, and will be eager to keep their momentum rolling. If they don’t finish second, it’ll be a shock. Scotland’s best hope will be sneaking through as a third-placed team, but their supporters will be the highlight of the tournament. And the reflex will be to write off Haiti, who are only here because three CONCACAF nations are co-hosting, but their 4-0 friendly win over New Zealand suggested they might be a bit of a banana skin.
Group D
The favourite: Turkey
What we think: The tightest group, in which every conceivable finishing order is possible. Turkey has the best pedigree, led by two young stars in Kenan Yildiz and Arda Guler, and will take some beating for top spot – although this is their first World Cup since their third-placed finish in 2002, and the flipside of being a country where football matters so much emotionally is that it can consume you.
The USA has home ground advantage, which can lift a team, and one of the best squads in their history; just ask any one of their television pundits, they’ll tell you. Paraguay beat Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay in qualifying and seem to be almost impossible to score against.
The Socceroos could be anything, too, depending on how the raw talent in this team handles the occasion, and if the likes of Nestory Irankunda, Mohamed Toure, Jordan Bos and Cristian Volpato can handle their nerves on the biggest stage they’ve been on. Genuinely tough to call, but Australia has been roundly written off – again – and that’s usually when they do their best work. We reckon they’ll finish second.
Group E
The favourite: Germany
What we think: For the last two World Cups, Germany have failed to get out of their group. That’s impossible to envisage this time under Julian Nagelsmann - but it’s also no fait accompli that they will finish top because of the rise of Ecuador, who conceded five goals in 18 qualifying games across South America and have the best chance in their history to go past the first knockout round. Their miserly defence is built on the strength of Paris Saint-Germain’s Willian Pacho and Arsenal’s Piero Hincapie, who recently faced off in the UEFA Champions League final, and sitting just in front of them is Chelsea’s Moises Caicedo; that’s one hell of a spine.
Curacao will be instinctively dismissed, and understandably so, but with a squad filled with battle-hardened diaspora players from the Netherlands, they will be a more difficult challenge than they appear on face value. Cote d’Ivoire, meanwhile, are back at the World Cup for the first time since 2018, but they lack the high-end talent they used to have - there are no names on the Drogba or Toure level these days.
Group F
The favourite: Netherlands
What we think: Can this ageing Dutch team go deep again? Four years ago, they were knocked out by eventual champions Argentina; this is surely the last dance for captain Virgil van Dijk and star striker Memphis Depay, who are both the wrong side of 30. There’s not a lot of young talent coming through, though, at least not in this squad.
The expectation is the Oranje will top the group, but they should get an almighty challenge from Japan, who have emerged as the hipster’s choice as a dark horse to win the whole thing. No team has ever lifted the World Cup from outside of Europe or South America, and the Samurai Blue are best positioned to end that hoodoo, with a stacked squad filled with talent that has been honed at the top levels of club football.
It’s pretty even out of the other two: Sweden are fortunate to be there as the beneficiaries of UEFA’s qualification system, in which they were given a rails run because of their Nations League form, but they don’t have one of their top attackers in Dejan Kulusevski, while Tunisia are always a handful.
