Who wants what and why from US-Iran peace talks?

When one side, the US, says there are ongoing, productive negotiations to end the war and the other side, Iran, says "no, there are not", then who to believe?

What exactly is going on behind the scenes? Should we believe that peace in the Gulf is just around the corner? Or are both sides settling in for a costly, protracted war that will keep energy prices high, affecting the whole world right through the summer?

Messages are certainly being passed from the US to Iran, but indirectly, via intermediaries like Pakistan that enjoy good relations with both governments.

That, of course, is not the same as "negotiations", which might explain why an Iranian military spokesman has flatly denied they are taking place.

There is indirect contact and channels between the two sides - but a deal may still be a long way off.

The signs are that we are now entering into a situation not dissimilar to the logjam over ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Both sides say they want it to finish, but on their terms, which are still far apart from what the other side will accept.

What the US and Israel want

When this war started, on 28 February, there were high hopes in Washington and Jerusalem that the overwhelming military superiority enjoyed by both these two nations over Iran would result in the inevitable collapse of the Islamic Republic.

Failing that, Iran, already in dire straits economically, would be brought to its knees and sue for peace on America's terms.

That has not happened. So what the US and Israel want, they may not necessarily get, as every day the Iranian regime survives it feels more emboldened.

Details of a proposed US 15-point plan, published by Israel's Channel 12 network, include an end to Iran's nuclear programme, an end to its ballistic missile programme, and an end to Iran's support for "proxy militias" like the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

In return, Iran would get sanctions relief and some shared control over the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has flatly rejected the US 15-point plan, calling it "excessive".

Instead, its state media has listed five conditions for ending the war, which include the payment of war reparations, international recognition of Iran's "sovereign right to exercise authority over the Strait of Hormuz", and a guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again.

These demands would be a bitter pill for Washington and its Gulf Arab allies to swallow.

Iran believes that as the largest nation in the region, with a population of more than 90 million people, with the longest coastline in the Gulf, it should resume its rightful role as "the policeman of the Gulf" - a role it enjoyed under the previous rule of the shah that ended with the Islamic Revolution in 1979.

It would like to see the US Navy's 5th Fleet, headquartered in Bahrain, depart the region, allowing Iran to become the pre-eminent military power in the Gulf, supported by its allies Russia, China and North Korea.

Iran says that it has a severe problem trusting the US since twice now it has sat down to negotiations - in 2025, and this year in February - only for the US to walk away and begin military strikes.

Critics of Iran say it was simply stringing the talks along and had no intention of ever giving up the programmes and policies that threaten the whole region.

What the Gulf Arab states want

The Gulf Arabs are dismayed by what has happened.

They had no great fondness for the Islamic Republic regime - but they had reached an uneasy accommodation with it before this conflict began.

Now they have watched in horror as the US has given this war its best shot and failed to bring down the Iranian regime, instead leaving it wounded and angry, lashing out at its neighbours on this side of the Gulf with drones and missiles.

To the frustration of Washington and US Central Command (Centcom), Iran is now in a far stronger position strategically than it was a month ago, since it has been able to assert de facto control over the crucial Strait of Hormuz.

This gives Tehran enormous leverage over the global energy market, knowing that the international pressure on US President Donald Trump to end this war will narrow his options.

Ideally, the Gulf states would like things to go back to how they were a month ago, but too much has happened and Iran is now in no mood to back down.

Trump's options may be about to multiply with the arrival of around 5,000 US Marines in the region, along with paratroopers from the US 82nd Airborne Division - but there are risks here, too.

There are a number of locations they could be deployed to: from Iran's oil export terminal at Kharg Island, to Iran's coast in Hormuzgan province, to the Bab El Mandeb Strait at the southern entrance to the Red Sea.

Or they could be just to exert more bargaining pressure on Tehran.

But any ground operation carries a greater chance of US casualties - deeply unpopular at home - and risks drawing the US deeper into a conflict many are calling "a war of choice".

The continued survival of the Islamic Republic regime has emboldened its members and its demands. It believes it has both time and geography on its side.

The more the White House tells the world that Iran is desperate for a deal, the less inclined Iran is to make one.