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July 2, 2026 — 5:00am
NSW simply have to change their attack if they’re going to spring an Origin upset at Suncorp Stadium on Wednesday.
The biggest change and the first thing the Blues need to fix?
Getting their best attacking players up in support of their big men. Which sounds simple given it’s what James Tedesco does so well at club level. But NSW need more of it from their No.7, No.6 and No.1.
For example, if Payne Haas is taking the ball up, he’s naturally attracting multiple defenders as the best front-rower in the game. Tedesco needs to be sitting on his inside to keep the marker honest, so that first defender can’t rush out and chop Haas’ legs out from the inside.
Then on his outside, it’s on Nathan Cleary, Mitchell Moses and the NSW back-rowers to be pushing up in support again. If that support play is genuine, it’ll keep the extra defender from piling into Payne.
Eventually, he’ll get a one-on-one and a quick play-the-ball. Because it’s Payne Haas, he can get a quick play-the-ball with two defenders hanging off him.
The last time NSW won at Suncorp, in Origin I last year, Haas and captain Isaah Yeo were their two best forwards, and Payne was man of the match after barely training with a quad injury all week.
With Moses and Cleary handling the ball playing and game management, Yeo just ran, and he dominated the Maroons through the middle.
Supporting quality ball runners – that is how you build your ruck speed, create a snowball effect and stretch the defensive line. This is how you give your dummy half a chance to run, how you give your hooker momentum to work with.
There has been a lot of chatter about how NSW and starting hooker Reece Robson haven’t threatened enough from dummy half. But I feel sorry for our No.9 – he’s hardly had an abundance of quick play-the-balls to work with.
Getting the other spine members pushing up around the ball, starting their movements as close to the advantage line as they can, puts the defence in two minds and of course gives the dummy half support options, too.
And again, the more stretched a defence is, then the more chances you have of isolating defenders, working them into one-on-one situations and creating the chance for offloads.
Offloads bring ad-lib footy into play, and that’s when you can move the ball laterally and quickly with a stretched defensive line.
I’ve been vocal about NSW needing to break out of their structured play more often. Particularly when they’ve telegraphed their “one big play” at the end of an attacking set. It’s too predictable, and when you’ve got elite players on the defending team who won’t panic under pressure, too easy to shut down.
Support play – led by Tedesco and the Blues halves – is the simplest way to do that.
The great Terry Lamb is the best support player in history, and when I asked him his secret, his reply was simple – jogging. Whenever the Bulldogs or Magpies had the ball, Terry was jogging downfield, even if the ball was 30 metres away.
If you’re already moving and can see a threat or an opportunity, in two steps you’re on your way and into top speed. If you’re walking, you’re just stargazing.
So my challenge to Moses and Cleary is to get up alongside our big men on their outside. Teddy, jockey for every single play on their inside.
The “big attacking play” that NSW have been searching for all series doesn’t work without momentum. The Blues playmakers need to help create that buzz around the ball, then shift it wide afterwards.
The Panthers boast To’o much firepower out wide
On Friday night, Brian To’o’s return to club duty for the Panthers is a huge, unexpected inclusion for the ladder leaders.
I have no doubt the axed NSW winger will have a point to prove, and he only adds to the advantage Penrith have out wide. Penrith’s back five have their opposite numbers for Souths covered, even with Jack Wighton returning from injury.
To’o is the best in the business when it comes to yardage carries and quick play-the-balls, with Dylan Edwards not far behind him.
Cody Walker holds all the cards for the Rabbitohs and he was sensational against Parramatta with two tries on his own created through his ball-playing threat. Jack Cogger and Izack Tago are in for a big night on Penrith’s right edge because this is where Cody does his best work.
I think it’ll be a fairly tight game with the forward packs and interchange benches well matched – I can see them cancelling each other out. But out wide, the Panthers have a huge advantage that will see them home.
Joey’s tip: Panthers by four.
First try-scorer: Tom Jenkins
Man of the match: Dylan Edwards
Take note NSW, this is how you attack
On Sunday afternoon we go back to Newcastle, and this promises to be a cracking contest.
The Dolphins have won eight in a row and averaged 35.5 points a game in that streak. If that’s not worth watching, I don’t know what is.
Newcastle love moving the ball as well, so I’m tipping all-out attack from both sides. Herbie Farnworth is the best centre in the game – he’s so strong and powerful, with fast feet and incredible agility.
That agility puts him in positions to create one-on-one tackles. Those bring offloads, and Herbie’s 48 offloads are the most by any player this season. Take. Note. New South Wales.
On the other side of the coin, I’m really looking forward to watching Fletcher Sharpe run around at fullback. He’s one of those rare players who maintains speed when he changes direction.
Sharpe boasts incredible balance and speed, but he’s also a great support player, too. Just watch whenever one of the Knights are pushing forward, or if there’s a sniff of a break, Fletcher will be right there. Again: Take. Note. New South Wales.
Lastly, I was really impressed with how Kodi Nikorima stood up when star halfback Isaiya Katoa went down against the Warriors last weekend. Brad Schneider was solid as well in a quality win.
Katoa’s expected four-week lay-off after wrist surgery might actually end up being a blessing in disguise if he comes back fresh for their finals charge. There is no doubt about it any more, the Dolphins are a genuine premiership contender.
Joey’s tip: Dolphins by eight
First try-scorer: Jamayne Isaako
Man of the match: Kodi Nikorima
