Allan dismisses leadership rumblings as ‘navel-gazing’ amid One Nation surge

Premier Jacinta Allan has warned of the “chaos” that would result from a One Nation government in Victoria, as she attempts to drag her party’s focus away from her leadership and towards the threat posed by Pauline Hanson’s surging, populist movement.

The comments are Allan’s first tacit acknowledgment that when Victorians go to the polls in November, the most significant challenge to Labor staying in power may come from One Nation rather than its age-old political rival, the Liberal-Nationals Coalition.

There is renewed speculation about Allan’s leadership within the Labor caucus prompted by internal and external polling showing that One Nation, a party yet to announce a leader in Victoria, is now the state’s most popular political party.

Labor MPs are warily awaiting the outcome of the next Resolve Political Monitor, due to be published by this masthead next week.

Allan dismissed leadership speculation as coming from a small number of anonymous, “navel-gazing” MPs and said Victorian politics was being reshaped by a seismic shift in voter sentiment driven largely by forces beyond her control.

“We don’t need polls to necessarily tell us that the old rules of politics, they’re changing, and we’ve seen how global economic shocks are really hitting people hard,” she said on Tuesday.

“One Nation is cannibalising the Liberal Party vote, the National Party vote, and I will also acknowledge it is taking a slice out of the Labor vote as well. We have to see that, hear that, understand that, keep listening to Victorians, but more importantly, taking action to help people right now with those pressures that are real.”

Allan, the state’s most experienced Labor parliamentarian and premier since September 2023, is seeking to convince an increasingly anxious caucus that she is the best person to lead her party to an historic, fourth consecutive term when the election is held on November 28.

She rejected outright the idea of standing aside if a leadership rival capable of boosting Labor’s flagging electoral prospects stepped forward in coming weeks.

“I am absolutely determined to see this through,” she said. “When the going gets tough, the tough get going and I am all in.”

Deputy Premier Ben Carroll, a policy centrist who has the backing of Labor’s right faction, is considered Allan’s most likely replacement, but has not declared himself a challenger. This masthead is not aware of any MPs actively canvassing for support for a change of leader.

Allan’s declaration that there are no circumstances in which she will voluntarily step down complicates the task facing any would-be challenger. Under party rules, adopted in response to the instability of the Rudd-Gillard era in Canberra, a new Labor leader would need to win a vote of both the caucus and a ballot of party members.

The Victorian caucus has not rolled a leader since 1999, when Steve Bracks toppled John Brumby ahead of that year’s state election. Brumby vacated the leadership rather than losing through a spill.

Allan on Tuesday stared down her detractors, saying hard work was the way to help voters confronting genuine economic hardship and uncertainty. She said no one in her party had approached her to suggest she stand down.

“I will continue to do the work because the next election is about a choice. It is a choice between the Liberal Party that just would cut this state to the bone – cut into hospitals, cut into schools – and a One Nation outfit that is just about chaos and division. That’s not the future that Victoria needs.”

The renewed leadership speculation was prompted by last week’s unconvincing policy announcements, when the Victorian government belatedly committed to reforms to strengthen the state’s peak anti-corruption body and introduced legislation in response to the High Court’s decision to strike out Victoria’s campaign finance laws as unconstitutional.

More broadly, it reflects growing concern within Labor circles at the orange wave now expected to crash across regional Victoria and Melbourne’s outer-suburban fringe at the state election.

Health Minister Harriet Shing, a close supporter of Allan, backed her to remain in the job.

“She’s made absolutely clear that we need to build things in order to create a better Victoria, not just for now but for our kids and for their kids,” Shing said. “She has championed the delivery of more housing, she has stood firm against constant opposition and division from the Liberals, from the Nationals and now, from One Nation.”

Shing added: “I’m really proud to stand by the premier.”

Next week’s parliamentary sitting, when the Labor caucus will gather for its regular meeting, is the last before a six-week winter break.

On Friday, The Age spoke to eight Labor MPs across the factional divide who, speaking anonymously to avoid repercussions, said frustration with Allan was building, and a challenge could take place before the election.

Others argued that a spill is far from a sure thing. All agreed that constant conversations about the spectre of One Nation and Labor’s poor polling was contributing to a fractious mood within the party.

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